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Oscar Predictions
Added on 27th January 2018

The Oscar nominations were announced on Tuesday 23rd January and it would be fair to say there were no real surprises in any of the major categories, save perhaps for seeing Greta Gerwig getting the credit she richly deserved with a Best Director nomination for her directorial debut, Lady Bird, after being overlooked at the Golden Globes a few weeks ago.

I shall be taking a look at some of the main nominations and giving my thoughts and predictions on what I feel the Academy will vote for and what I personally believe should win come 4th March. This is always a bit of a fun exercise to see how close or far off I am each year!


BEST PICTURE

CALL ME BY YOUR NAME        DARKEST HOUR           DUNKIRK

GET OUT          LADY BIRD           PHANTOM THREAD

THREE BILLBOARDS        THE SHAPE OF WATER      THE POST

As per 2017 there are nine films up for the big one again this year and personally I think there are only two main contenders; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri and The Shape of Water. I'd be highly surprised if any of the other titles were in with a chance. If I was a betting man I would say that Three Billboards will snatch it and by way of consolation for missing out, I believe Guillermo de Toro will pick up Best Director for The Shape of Water.


BEST ACTRESS

SALLY HAWKINS – THE SHAPE OF WATER

FRANCES MCDORMAND – THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING MISSOURI

MARGOT ROBBIE – I TONYA

SAOIRSE RONAN – LADY BIRD

MERYL STREEP – THE POST

Once again I see this as a two horse race between Sally Hawkins and Frances McDormand. I think on the strength of McDormand winning the Best Actress award twice already at the Golden Globes and the more recent Screen Actor's Guild (SAG), I think she has this in the bag. Whilst Sally Hawkins performance is both beautiful and mesmerising, I just personally feel that McDormand may well have the edge.


BEST ACTOR

TIMOTHEE CHALAMET – CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

DANIEL DAY-LEWIS – PHANTOM THREAD

DANIEL KALUUYA – GET OUT

GARY OLDMAN – DARKEST HOUR

DENZEL WASHINGTON – ROMAN J ISRAEL ESQ

I have to confess I was no fan of the film Darkest Hour or Gary Oldman's ham-fisted over the top performance, and yet he seems to be getting all the accolades, so what do I know!? Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread gave an astonishing performance and is the outright winner for me. I do however suspect that the Academy will go with Oldman on the basis that he is playing an historical character and he has not won an Oscar before, whereas Day-Lewis has already won it three times! This is, however, supposedly Day-Lewis final film as he is retiring from acting, so who knows which way the Academy may jump.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

MARY J BLIGE – MUDBOUND

ALLISON JANNEY – I TONYA

LESLEY MANVILLE – PHANTOM THREAD

LAURIE METCALF – LADY BIRD

OCTAVIA SPENCER – THE SHAPE OF WATER

I was surprised at how much I loved the film I Tonya but more than that it was Allison Janney's incredible performance as Tonya Harding's mother which impressed me the most. I'd love to see her pick up the award as it would be truly deserved. I do also believe that both Lesley Manville and Laurie Metcalf are both in with a good shout for their performances in Phantom Thread and Lady Bird respectively.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

WILLEM DAFOE – THE FLORIDA PROJECT

WOODY HARRELSON – THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING MISSOURI

RICHARD JENKINS – THE SHAPE OF WATER

CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER – ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD

SAM ROCKWELL – THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING MISSOURI

There's only one winner here in my humble opinion and that is Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project. If any of you follow me on either Twitter or Instagram, then you will already know how much I adored The Florida Project last year and it ended up high on my end of year list of Best Films of 2017 for Sight and Sound film magazine. Sam Rockwell is potentially in with an outside chance, but I feel pretty confident that Dafoe has this one sewn up.


BEST DIRECTOR

CHRISTOPHER NOLAN – DUNKIRK

JORDAN PEELE – GET OUT

GRETA GERWIG – LADY BIRD

PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON – PHANTOM THREAD

GUILLERMO DEL TORO – THE SHAPE OF WATER

It is perhaps rather surprising to not see British writer/director Martin McDonagh listed here for THREE BILLBOARDS but, as I indicated above, I believe this award has Del Toro's name all over it for his beautiful love story fantastique, The Shape of Water.


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